Winning In The NCAA Tournament

Each year after the NCAA Tourament, I like to go back through all the box scores and find out what statistical category was the most successful predictor of winning. This year FG Percent Defense was the best predictor of winning. In 2010, teams with a better fg percent defense won 52 of 63 games (there was 1 tie).

Duke won the fg percent defense category in 5 of their 6 games. Against Baylor, they lost this category. Duke shot a horrible 36.1% from the field that game, but they more than made up for it by making and attempting more free throws (23/29) than Baylor (12/19).

A STATISTICAL LOOK AT THE 2010 NCAA TOURNAMENT

64 GAMES

1. FG PERCENT DEFENSE – KEEPING YOUR OPPONENT’S FG % LOWER THAN YOURS -

CORRESPONDING WINNING PERCENTAGE

.825 52 OF 63 (1 TIE)

2. FREE THROW ATTEMPTS – ATTEMPTING MORE THAN YOUR OPPONENT –

CORRESPONDING WINNING PERCENTAGE

.726 45 OF 62 (2 TIES)

3. FOULS – COMMIT FEWER FOULS THAN YOUR OPPONENT –

CORRESPONDING WINNING PERCENTAGE

.698 44 OF 63 (1 TIE)

4. FT PERCENTAGE – SHOOT A BETTER FT PERCENTAGE THAN YOUR OPPONENT –

CORRESPONDING WINNING PERCENTAGE

.689 42 OF 61 (3 TIES)

5. 3 PT FG % DEFENSE – DEFEND THE 3 BALL BETTER THAN YOUR OPPONENT –

CORRESPONDING WINNING PERCENTAGE

.678 40 OF 59 (5 TIES)

6. REBOUNDING – OUTREBOUND YOUR OPPONENT –

CORRESPONDING WINNING PERCENTAGE

.677 42 OF 62 (2 TIES)

7. TURNOVERS – COMMIT FEWER TO’S THAN YOUR OPPONENT –

CORRESPONDING WINNING PERCENTAGE

.579 33 OF 57 (7 TIES)

8. STEALS – HAVE MORE STEALS THAN YOUR OPPONENT –

CORRESPONDING WINNING PERCENTAGE

.537 29 OF 54 (10 TIES)